In The Sun Always Rises, Hemingway records a conversation between two actors where a question is asked, "How did you go bankrupt?", and an answer is given, "Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly." Although Ernest Hemingway was writing about financial collapse, few observations better describe the way many acts of violence unfold. We often view violence as a spontaneous eruption/interaction, involving two individuals  i.e., a person who "snaps," and a victim who is "in the wrong place at the wrong time," or as a tragedy that appeared without warning e.g., a disgruntled worker who goes on a killing spree etc. Yet when investigators reconstruct the events leading up to a homicide, a stalking incident, or a case of domestic assault (Intimate Partner Violence), a different picture often emerges. The act of violence itself may have taken seconds or minutes, but the journey towards it frequently took weeks, months, or possibly even years, i.e., it occurred both gradually, and then suddenly.

Hemingway's words offer a useful framework for understanding violence because they apply equally to both the offender and - in many cases - to the victim or intended target. Both individuals may experience a gradual progression toward the same moment, albeit from entirely different perspectives. One is slowly moving towards committing violence, whilst the other may be slowly moving towards vulnerability (this is not the same as attributing blame), often without fully recognizing the danger until it has become immediate. From the perpetrator's perspective, serious violence is rarely the product of a single event. Instead, it is better understood/seen as the culmination of an evolving psychological process. The individual may begin by experiencing a grievance, such as a failed relationship, a workplace conflict, or a series of perceived disrespect(s) etc. At first, these experiences may produce frustration or disappointment, emotions that almost everyone experiences without resorting to violence.

However, for some individuals, these grievances are never resolved. Instead, they become mentally rehearsed on a repeated basis with different outcomes imagined e.g., an individual revisits conversations, imagines alternative outcomes, assigns blame, and in the process increasingly views themselves as a victim. This process of rumination can gradually reshape how they interpret the world e.g., neutral interactions become perceived insults. Minor setbacks become evidence of persecution and people cease being individuals and instead become symbols of the grievance itself. As this cognitive shift continues, anger may deepen into resentment and resentment into fixation. Rather than thinking about the future, the individual increasingly thinks about the grievance; it becomes central to their identity. Friends may notice they "can't let things go", and conversations start to become repetitive with every discussion, regardless of topic/subject - returning to the same perceived injustice. This is the gradual stage Hemingway describes.

During this period, other changes may also occur. The individual may start to withdraw socially, they may rehearse fantasies of revenge and consume material that reinforces their beliefs, and/or starts to justify the use of violence. Such individuals may start to test boundaries through the use of threatening language, stalking behaviours, and acts of intimidation etc. Modern threat assessment refers to many of these behaviours as pathway behaviours because they represent actual movement towards violence rather than merely holding violent thoughts. Eventually, the process reaches a tipping point. To outsiders the triggering event itself may appear surprisingly insignificant, e.g.,  a seemingly benign text message, a redundancy notice, or seeing an ex-partner with someone else etc. None of these events, in isolation, can explain the violence that follows. Rather, they serve as the final straw placed upon a structure that has been slowly built over months or years. The gradual that turns into the sudden. To the offender, it often feels like the inevitable conclusion to a story that has been unfolding for a long time, though as Hemingway observes, it appears sudden.

Very few victims consciously and/or deliberately move towards violence, yet many experience their own gradual journey. The difference is that theirs is characterised not by escalating intent but by incremental adaptation. If we look at those who are victims of coercive control within an abusive relationship, we can see that the first incident may be little more than criticism disguised as concern. However, later comes the monitoring of friendships, the financial control, the isolation from friends  and family, before the  verbal abuse, intimidation, and eventual physical violence etc. Each stage gradually presents itself as the new normal, before the sudden violence. Looking backwards, the progression appears obvious. However, it is gradual and then sudden. Living through it, each step is only marginally worse than the one before. As a species, we possess an extraordinary ability to adapt to changing circumstances, particularly when change occurs gradually. Behaviour that would once have been unacceptable becomes tolerated because it has become familiar. This same process occurs in stalking cases. Initial unwanted contact may be dismissed as awkward persistence, repeated messages become irritating rather than alarming, and uninvited appearances are explained away as coincidence. Only after the accumulation of so many incidents do we recognize the pattern for what it is. Again, the realisation comes gradually before the danger suddenly becomes undeniable.

This phenomenon is not limited to interpersonal violence. Many victims of fraud, radicalization, bullying, or workplace harassment describe similar experiences. There was rarely one decisive moment. Instead, there was a gradual erosion of boundaries, confidence, certainty, or safety until the situation eventually reached a crisis point. In psychology this is often described as the "normalization of deviance." Small departures from what is acceptable become accepted because each individual step appears manageable. The cumulative effect, however, is profound and the same principle can be applied to situational awareness. Many people imagine that personal safety depends upon recognizing an immediate danger, however in reality, effective personal safety often involves recognizing gradual change(s) e.g., a stranger who repeatedly appears in different locations, a work colleague whose behaviour becomes increasingly obsessive, or a partner whose need for control slowly expands.

None of these developments necessarily predict violence on their own, however together, they may reveal a trajectory. This distinction between events and processes is perhaps the greatest contribution of Hemingway's quote, when applied metaphorically to violence. Society often asks, "What made them snap?" (a focus on the sudden) however that question assumes that violence begins at the moment of attack, whereas  a better question may be, "What pathway/events led them to this place?" A focus on the gradual. Likewise, instead of asking victims why they did not leave, report, or recognise the danger sooner, it may be more effective to examine how the gradual progression influenced their perception of risk. It is much easier to identify warning signs with the benefit of hindsight than it is while living through them. This is where we can learn.

Modern violence prevention increasingly focuses upon these gradual processes. Threat assessment professionals examine behavioral change(s) rather than isolated incidents, domestic violence specialists look for patterns rather than single assaults and counter-terrorism practitioners assess the accumulation of pathway behaviours rather than waiting for or examining an overt attack. From a personal safety perspective, it is important to recognise persistent patterns rather than relying solely upon intuition in moments of crisis. The goal is not to predict violence with certainty as human behaviour is far too complex for that. Instead, the objective is to recognise when a collection of seemingly minor changes begins to form a coherent and concerning pattern. Hemingway's famous line reminds us that catastrophic events often have long histories and violence is no exception. The attack itself may occur in an instant, but the psychological, behavioral, and situational conditions that make it possible usually emerge gradually, and if we can observe these small changes, we increase our chances of avoiding victimization.